The longer a germ’s incubation period, the more time there is to intervene with measures that prevent spread, like quarantine or vaccination. Whereas a more primarily airborne virus like SARS-CoV-2 can turn a choir practice into a superspreader event, monkeypox is unlikely to spread as explosively because infection requires direct contact.Ī second important variable is the incubation period, the time period between the moment of infection and the moment symptoms start.
That makes it harder for one person to infect multiple people than it would be if the virus were primarily spread through the air. Most monkeypox transmission happens by skin-to-skin contact (although it also can be transmitted between people through respiratory secretions, via skin lesions, or exposure to recently contaminated objects). The first thing to consider is the route of transmission, said Eric Toner, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
Its innate characteristics determine how far of a reach the virus could have, and help experts figure out how to intervene in its spread. When epidemiologists are wondering if an outbreak can be contained, they start by considering the pathogen itself. The biology of the monkeypox virus makes containment likely How exactly could the monkeypox outbreak play out? It comes down to these key factors. However, there are some vulnerabilities monkeypox can exploit to stick around longer.
When it comes to monkeypox, experts assessing these factors feel reasonably confident this outbreak won’t swell to pandemic proportions. Epidemiologists assess containment potential on the basis of a few different categories: the biology of the germ itself, the immunity and compliance in communities in which it’s spreading, and the public health capacity to respond.